미국 신용평가사 무디스(Moody's)는 지난 18일 GS칼텍스의 신용등급 전망을 기존 '안정적(Stable)'에서 '부정적(Negative)'으로 하향 조정했다.
GS칼텍스의 무담보 선순위채권에 대한 무디스의 신용등급은 'Baa1'이 부여된 상태다.
이번 조치로 인해 약 20억 달러에 달하는 발행채권이 영향을 받게 된다고 무디스는 설명했다.
다음은 무디스가 발표한 보도자료 원문.
Moody's revises GS Caltex's outlook to negative
Approximately US$2 billion of debt securities affected
Hong Kong, November 18, 2008 -- Moody's Investors Service has today changed the outlook to negative from stable for the Baa1 senior unsecured issuer and bond ratings of GS Caltex Corporation ("GSC").
"This rating action reflects the increasing pressure on GSC's financial profile due to the company's heavy capital expenditure plans, coinciding with a period of weak refining market conditions amid global economic uncertainty," says Renee Lam, a Moody's Vice President.
"In addition, GSC's already marginal debt coverage metrics have left it with limited cushion within the Baa1 rating," adds Lam, also Moody's lead analyst for the company.
For the 9 months to September 2008, GSC's weaker than expected financial profile was mainly attributable to its weakened cash flow generation, additional debt to fund capex, as well as crude oil purchased at near-peak prices. The year to date decline in the value of the Korean won against the US dollar, by about 30%, has also inflated the company's debt level.
Market conditions are likely to be unfavourable for GSC over the next 12-18 months, in view of declining demand as well as upcoming new capacity completions. This could potentially lead to further earnings and cash flow deterioration for the company.
GSC's capital investments for 2008-2010, including the major project No. 3 heavy oil upgrade unit ("No. 3 HOU"), are sizeable and could exceed Moody's previous expectation. While these projects would strengthen the company's long-term competitiveness, they entail execution and financial risks. The depreciation of the Korean won against the US dollar, combined with service and equipment cost increases, have also added to cost pressure on these projects.
The Baa1 rating reflects GSC's substantial refinery capacity and vertically-integrated operations, the likely regulatory support for the domestic oil sector, and benefits derived from GSC's 50% shareholder, Chevron Corp (rated Aa1), which maintains high involvement in its operations and strategy.
The rating outlook could revert to stable if GSC manages its operations, capital investment plans, and other cash outlays, such that it achieves a retained cash flow ("RCF")/Adjusted Debt ratio of at least 20% and EBIT to interest above 4x consistently.
On the other hand, the rating could be lowered if the company fails to strengthen internal cash flow generation or to actively manage its cash uses including capital expenditures or dividend payments, such that RCF/Adjusted Debt remains below 20% and EBIT/Interest below 3.5x on a sustained basis.
GSC is a leading oil refining and marketing company in Korea. The company owns and operates the nation's second largest oil refinery, which has a daily refining capacity of 770,000 barrels, or 24% of the national market.
GS칼텍스의 무담보 선순위채권에 대한 무디스의 신용등급은 'Baa1'이 부여된 상태다.
이번 조치로 인해 약 20억 달러에 달하는 발행채권이 영향을 받게 된다고 무디스는 설명했다.
다음은 무디스가 발표한 보도자료 원문.
Moody's revises GS Caltex's outlook to negative
Approximately US$2 billion of debt securities affected
Hong Kong, November 18, 2008 -- Moody's Investors Service has today changed the outlook to negative from stable for the Baa1 senior unsecured issuer and bond ratings of GS Caltex Corporation ("GSC").
"This rating action reflects the increasing pressure on GSC's financial profile due to the company's heavy capital expenditure plans, coinciding with a period of weak refining market conditions amid global economic uncertainty," says Renee Lam, a Moody's Vice President.
"In addition, GSC's already marginal debt coverage metrics have left it with limited cushion within the Baa1 rating," adds Lam, also Moody's lead analyst for the company.
For the 9 months to September 2008, GSC's weaker than expected financial profile was mainly attributable to its weakened cash flow generation, additional debt to fund capex, as well as crude oil purchased at near-peak prices. The year to date decline in the value of the Korean won against the US dollar, by about 30%, has also inflated the company's debt level.
Market conditions are likely to be unfavourable for GSC over the next 12-18 months, in view of declining demand as well as upcoming new capacity completions. This could potentially lead to further earnings and cash flow deterioration for the company.
GSC's capital investments for 2008-2010, including the major project No. 3 heavy oil upgrade unit ("No. 3 HOU"), are sizeable and could exceed Moody's previous expectation. While these projects would strengthen the company's long-term competitiveness, they entail execution and financial risks. The depreciation of the Korean won against the US dollar, combined with service and equipment cost increases, have also added to cost pressure on these projects.
The Baa1 rating reflects GSC's substantial refinery capacity and vertically-integrated operations, the likely regulatory support for the domestic oil sector, and benefits derived from GSC's 50% shareholder, Chevron Corp (rated Aa1), which maintains high involvement in its operations and strategy.
The rating outlook could revert to stable if GSC manages its operations, capital investment plans, and other cash outlays, such that it achieves a retained cash flow ("RCF")/Adjusted Debt ratio of at least 20% and EBIT to interest above 4x consistently.
On the other hand, the rating could be lowered if the company fails to strengthen internal cash flow generation or to actively manage its cash uses including capital expenditures or dividend payments, such that RCF/Adjusted Debt remains below 20% and EBIT/Interest below 3.5x on a sustained basis.
GSC is a leading oil refining and marketing company in Korea. The company owns and operates the nation's second largest oil refinery, which has a daily refining capacity of 770,000 barrels, or 24% of the national market.
