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※ 번역할 언어 선택

Dollars and Sense

William Poole*
President, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Financial Planning Association of Missouri and Southern Illinois
St. Louis
Jan. 9, 2008

*I appreciate assistance and comments provided by my colleagues at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Joseph C. Elstner, Public Affairs officer, provided special assistance. Robert Rasche, senior vice president and director of Research, and Robert Schenk, senior vice president for Public and Community Affairs, provided valuable input to an earlier draft of the speech. However, I take full responsibility for errors. The views expressed are mine and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.


Dollars and Sense

We are certainly living in extraordinary financial times. Our nation has enjoyed a long economic expansion and inflation has been relatively low. However, since last August, financial markets have been in considerable turmoil resulting from subprime mortgage lending and a deflating housing boom. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is watching both recession and inflation risks. Recession risks are primarily a consequence of financial turmoil, which has threatened to spread housing industry woes to the broader economy.

Will housing sector problems push the economy into recession? It is too early to tell right now, but what we can do is to examine the current situation closely and try to learn from it. Perhaps “relearn” is a better word, because the mistakes that brought us to this point have been made before. There are no new lessons here. The lessons are familiar ones that need to be more forcefully driven home and incorporated in standard financial practice in the future. That is why I’ve titled my remarks “Dollars and Sense.” The Fed is working on providing the public with better and more useful financial information that we hope will reduce the odds on the housing finance industry repeating its recent financial mistakes.

My plan is to review the current situation and examine five key mistakes by borrowers and other market players. Although many borrowers have little financial expertise, we would have expected all the other players to be more sophisticated and experienced. Then I’ll review where the country stands in trying to educate Americans in basic financial literacy and economic thinking. As part of that review, I’ll include some of the things the Federal Reserve is doing to address this issue. Finally, I’ll look at what we can all do to help Americans know more about their finances and to give them the tools to make better choices. As financial planners, you of course have a large stake in this enterprise and will benefit in the long run from having better-prepared clients. I know your organization is already involved in some education efforts, and I applaud your efforts.

Before proceeding, I want to emphasize that the views I express here are mine and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. I thank my colleagues at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis for their comments. Joseph C. Elstner, Public Affairs officer at the St. Louis Fed, provided special assistance. However, I retain full responsibility for errors.
Five Mistakes

Let’s review the five major mistakes creating the subprime mess.

First, too many borrowers took on mortgages they could not afford. Nothing new there, except for the number of such borrowers. How could something seemingly so preventable happen? One of the main culprits was the adjustable rate mortgage, or ARM. Actually, the problem is not the ARM itself but grossly inadequate borrower understanding of this type of mortgage. The “Two/Twenty-Eight” ARM called for low initial payments for two years, which would then reset to higher levels for the remaining 28 years of the 30-year mortgage. Too many borrowers, though, did not insist on knowing just what the “higher level” would mean, and too many mortgage brokers did not provide that information in a way the borrower could understand. Other borrowers, wanting to take advantage of low initial payments, gave misleading or false information about their ability to repay. It is important to emphasize that there is nothing inherently wrong with adjustable rate mortgages, and they make sense for many borrowers. However, borrowers must be prepared for interest rate resets and able to pay higher rates. In recent years, too many borrowers were not prepared. Borrowers also need to understand prepayment penalties in their mortgage contracts. These can make refinancing ARMs into fixed-rate mortgages terribly expensive.

Second in our mistakes summary, mortgage brokers put too many borrowers into unsuitable mortgages. As I mentioned in a speech to a St. Louis real estate group last July, with widely held expectations of rising interest rates priced into the markets throughout the 2003-2005 period, it is difficult to avoid the judgment that these ARM loans were poorly underwritten. It was imprudent for mortgage bankers and lenders to approve borrowers who likely could not service the loans when rates rose. It is important to understand that rising interest rates were not just a risk but actually the market expectation. Poor underwriting not only jeopardized the borrowers put into unsuitable mortgages but also the brokers themselves. Numerous brokers are now bankrupt, and many survivors have suffered large losses and sullied reputations.

Third, it is surprising to me that investment banks jeopardized their reputations by securitizing these mortgages when the underlying loans were backed by inadequate or spurious information.

Damaged reputations are also casualties of the fourth major mistake: rating agencies that placed AAA ratings on many securities backed by subprime mortgages. The rating agencies seemed to have based their ratings on a backward look at default experience on similar mortgages before 2006, rather than on a forward look based on careful analysis of the likely ability of borrowers to repay in less favorable market circumstances. The reason default experience on subprime mortgages was relatively favorable before 2007 is that housing prices were rising, permitting stressed borrowers to sell their properties to repay the mortgages. The rating agencies, apparently, did not believe that house prices might stop rising, in which case the music would stop.

The final entry on our major mistake list is investors who bought those securities without conducting an adequate analysis of the underlying investments. Investors too readily accepted the AAA ratings at face value. As financial planners, you are very familiar with the cliché that “if something looks too good to be true, it probably is.” A reach for yield with inadequate attention to risk is another basic lesson that apparently cannot be relearned often enough.

It is interesting, and a bit depressing, that investment professionals made four of the five mistakes. I can understand the mistakes many financially naïve borrowers made but have a hard time understanding how so many investment professionals could have been so wrong. Many observers point to greed, but I prefer a different explanation. Shortsightedness rather than greed explains actions that led to losses of tens of billions of dollars and the failure of many financial firms.

Avoiding Future Mistakes

I will now to add some detail to three of these mistake categories—borrowers who cannot repay, mortgage brokers putting people into unsuitable loans and investors who did not do their homework. Here is my question: How could better education and financial decision-making have helped people avoid these mistakes?

Borrowers. Too many know too little about credit and what its costs and risks are. Starting with coursework on credit usage in elementary and middle schools and continuing with financial literacy and economics in high school would go a long way toward equipping borrowers with the information they need, or at least give them enough knowledge to ask the right questions about what they can afford and what lending terms mean.

Mortgage brokers. Many have closed their doors and gone out of business through unsatisfactory lending. In the July realtor speech I mentioned earlier, I emphasized that a durable stream of profits in mortgage lending requires a continuing flow of capital from investors willing to buy the mortgages an originator wants to sell and securitize. Given the difficulty any mortgage broker faces in differentiating its own products, the best way to stand out and survive over the long term is to give outstanding service to mortgage shoppers. Turning outstanding service into future business prospects is precisely the role for reputation. A firm’s good name spread through word of mouth will pay the highest dividends over the long term. And going the extra mile by making certain that borrowers understand lending terms and are able to service those loans can cement that reputation and keep those doors open a long time.

Investors. Here I want to look at individual investors, the ones you know so well. It may be true that many if not most such investors put their money heavily into mutual funds, reducing some of the risk of holding individual stocks and bonds. What would help them greatly, I believe, is a much better understanding of what their funds hold. Mutual funds are professionally managed, but the subprime fallout has hit the pros hard, too. In one example from our Federal Reserve District, two investors in two Regions Morgan Keegan mutual funds severely affected by subprime mortgage problems are suing over sharp declines in the values of their investments. As of Dec. 13, 2007, the Select Intermediate Bond Fund and the Select High Income Fund were down 47 and 56 percent, respectively. News media accounts tell of disastrous results being faced by other investors in similar types of securities. Would investors equipped with better knowledge have avoided such steep losses? More organizations should get behind efforts to improve investor knowledge.

Where does the country stand in terms of educating our citizens in the financial and economic basics? The brief answer is that efforts across the nation are making progress but we have a long way to go.

According to a 2007 survey by the National Council on Economic Education:

* Economics, traditionally part of the Social Studies curriculum, is now included in the educational standards of all states.
* 41 states, up from 28 in 1998, now require these standards be implemented. Sounds good so far, but there’s more.
* Only 17 states, not including Missouri or Illinois, require students to take an economics course for high school graduation, up from 13 states in 1998.
* Only 22 states, not including Missouri or Illinois, require testing of student knowledge in economics, three fewer than in 2004.

Personal finance,a newer subject in comparison with economics, is now included in the educational standards of 40 states, up from 21 in 1998, with 28 states requiring these standards to be implemented. Still, though, only seven states require students to take a personal finance course for high school graduation and only nine require the testing of knowledge in personal finance. Missouri now requires personal finance for graduation and tests for knowledge; Illinois requires a consumer education course but does not test on the subject for graduation.

What we have, then, is a mixed bag when it comes to preparing students to learn about money and the choices to be made in handling it. Our nation is making progress, but as we have seen with the subprime mess, we as a society have a lot more to do in equipping students and adults with the knowledge they need to make wiser financial decisions.

I know the Financial Planning Association of Missouri and Southern Illinois believes in boosting financial literacy. Your web site tells of the projects you’ve undertaken to better educate yourselves and your clients and the volunteer work you’ve done for the community. At the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and in our branch cities of Little Rock, Louisville and Memphis, we’re trying to do our part, too.

We’ve got a two-pronged effort going, with one part aimed at community development and a complementary effort aimed at improving financial education in the schools. On the community development side, we work on educating community groups and through those groups, their members, about improving communities through making better financial decisions.

Last month, for example, we hosted a seminar, “HMDA to Home Improvement,” in St. Louis. HMDA is the acronym for Home Mortgage Disclosure Act. Attending were mortgage lending experts, community group representatives, economists and government officials. Discussions were aimed at helping homeowners avoid foreclosures and take advantage of programs making home improvements affordable.

The St. Louis Fed also participates in the St. Louis Foreclosure Intervention Task Force. It’s a collaboration of representatives of government, financial institutions, and real estate and nonprofit organizations One outgrowth of that effort is a hotline, 888-995-HOPE, that counsels homeowners concerned about foreclosure. Brochures and television appearances helped promote the hotline. We helped in starting a similar program in Springfield, Mo.

In Louisville, Ky., our branch staff is involved in the Don’t Borrow Trouble Coalition, an organization helping citizens deal with lending issues, particularly as they relate to mortgages. The Kentucky Predatory Lending Prevention Committee is another organization we help support; it helps families avoid money scams and to resolve financial problems. We’re also active in similar efforts in Arkansas, Indiana, Tennessee and other locations.

Besides our community development efforts, the St. Louis Fed and other Federal Reserve banks work through state economic education councils, centers for economic education and local school districts to offer mostly free economic and financial education materials and curricula to teachers. We do some work directly with students, but we find we can reach many more of them by working through their teachers. Our aim is to drop large boulders in the education pond and to encourage the ripples to expand.

We have a lot going on in this area too; I’ll highlight some of the key projects.

I mentioned earlier that Missouri now requires a one-semester personal finance course. The St. Louis Fed’s economic education experts are helping to train educators who will be teaching those courses, setting up workshops for them and training teachers in the new curriculum.

We also take part, as do representatives from commercial banks, in Teach Children to Save Day, an annual event for first- through third-graders. In the St. Louis metro area alone, our volunteer employees taught lessons in over 400 classrooms last year on the importance of saving regularly and what it means to save over the long term for something you really want.

There are many places teachers can go to for useful information and classroom-ready lessons on money, credit and economic concepts. Two of the best are web sites: first, our Bank’s web site at www.stlouisfed.org. Clicking on the “education” link brings teachers to conferences, materials, lessons, teaching tips and much more. The other site is actually a portal at www.federalreserveeducation.org. It’s an entry to web sites providing help of all kinds for teachers of personal finance and economics. Just about any topic under the general “economics and personal finance” heading is included in one or both web sites, along with support materials and tips on using them.

In St. Louis and our branch cities of Little Rock, Louisville and Memphis, our economic education staff in 2007 conducted well over 100 separate meetings, workshops, competitions or other events aimed at equipping teachers to provide their kindergarten through high school students with the skills they need to deal with money, debt, credit, saving and economic decision-making.

For example, in early 2007, high school teachers in Southhaven, Miss., attended a "Growing Smart with Money" workshop led by our Memphis Branch economic education staff. In the St. Louis metro area, we worked with local libraries to put on a program for middle schoolers called “Money Smarts for Kids.” We worked with the Kansas City Fed and centers for economic education staff at Missouri universities to conduct the first-ever Missouri Personal Finance Competition in St. Louis, Kansas City, Springfield and Columbia, with the championship held in Jefferson City. A program begun by our Little Rock Branch staff, the Piggy Bank Primer, has helped early grade school students throughout our District to learn more about saving. A program we helped roll out in Quincy, Ill., “Your Paycheck” is expanding in our District. It’s aimed at teenagers, particular those holding their first jobs, and teaches them about paychecks—what the various deductions mean and how you can learn more about benefits, saving, withholding and more.

That’s just a partial listing of the community development and economic and financial education efforts we’ve got going. And there’s more of that coming for 2008 and beyond.

What can we all do to move this trend along, to put learning the basics of saving, borrowing and credit higher in the public’s mind? There are a number of things, and it is going to take the Federal Reserve, the Financial Planning Association of Missouri and Southern Illinois, and thousands of other organizations to pull it off.

* Contact your local schools and ask them where learning about saving, spending, investing and borrowing fit into their curricula, what lessons are being taught and how. Bring up this subject at school board meetings and parent meetings.
* Support legislative efforts to require coursework in economics and personal finance for high school graduation. Let your state representatives and senators know through calls, letters or e-mails and personal contact.
* Write op-ed pieces highlighting the need for expanded financial education and offer them to local news media. Don’t overlook influential Internet bloggers…they can help spread the word quickly.
* Get behind or start financial and economic education programs in professional organizations and lend your skills. We ask a lot of our educators; they can do a lot, but they can’t do it all. We can all add our voices…and ourselves.

Concluding Comment

The current financial turmoil will take awhile to play itself out. The fundamentals of our economy remain strong, however, and 2008 looks to be a year of rising growth. Economic forecasters expect slow expansion in the first half of the year and a quickening pace in the second half. Meanwhile, if borrowers, lenders and investors can refocus on financial basics and re-emphasize critical lessons about credit and risk, the financial future can be brighter than the second half of 2007. For that brighter future, we need to infuse our education at all levels with the lessons of 2007—old lessons to be sure but easy to understand at a very practical level from 2007 experience. With continuing effort we can expect that financial upsets such as the current one will be infrequent and milder when they do occur.

Thank you and I’d be glad to take your questions.

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외국인 한 시간 만에 5조 '사자' [서울=뉴스핌] 이정아 기자 = 외국인 투자자가 31일 코스피 시장에서 5조원이 넘는 주식을 순매수하며 국내 증시를 끌어올리고 있다. 최근 대규모 매도세를 이어갔던 외국인이 공격적인 매수로 돌아서면서 투자심리가 빠르게 회복되는 모습이다. 한국거래소에 따르면 이날 오전 10시 기준 외국인은 유가증권시장에서 5조2218억1300만원을 순매수하고 있다. 반면 기관은 2255억9300만원, 개인은 4조9235억7700만원을 각각 순매도 중이다. 외국인 투자자의 '사자'에 힘입어 지수는 현재 불기둥을 쏘아 올리고 있다. 같은 시각 코스피는 전 거래일보다 902.68포인트(16.13%) 오른 6496.24를 기록하고 있다. 반면 개인은 이날까지 사흘째 '팔자'를 이어가며 외국인의 매수 물량을 받아내는 모습이다. [서울=뉴스핌] 김예원 기자 = 코스피가 전장 종가보다 16% 이상 상승하며 6500선에 거래가 진행되고 있는 31일 오전 서울 중구 하나은행 을지로 본점 딜링룸에서 직원들이 업무를 보고 있다. 2026.07.31 yeawon2@newspim.com 외국인은 전날 코스피 시장에서도 1조3280억원을 순매수한 데 이어 이날도 대규모 매수세를 이어가고 있다. 최근 4거래일 연속 순매도로 국내 증시 하락을 주도했던 흐름에서 벗어나 반도체 대형주를 중심으로 공격적인 매수에 나선 모습이다. 전문가들은 미국 빅테크의 호실적과 필라델피아 반도체지수 급등, 반도체 업황 개선 기대가 맞물리면서 외국인 자금이 국내 증시로 빠르게 유입되고 있는 것으로 분석하고 있다. 특히 삼성전자와 SK하이닉스를 중심으로 한 대형 반도체주에 매수세가 집중되며 지수 상승을 견인하고 있다. 삼성전기는 29.92%, SK스퀘어는 29.91% 급등하며 상한가에 근접했고, SK하이닉스(27.61%)와 삼성전자(24.64%)도 20% 넘게 치솟고 있다. 삼성전자우(24.04%), 삼성물산(20.58%), 삼성생명(17.99%) 등 시가총액 상위 종목으로도 매수세가 확산되면서 코스피는 단숨에 6500선을 회복했다. plum@newspim.com 2026-07-31 10:15
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[히든스테이지] 즌·오아 첫 도전 [서울=뉴스핌] 이지은 기자 = 종합뉴스통신사 뉴스핌과 감엔터테인먼트가 주최하고, 문화체육관광부·한국콘텐츠진흥원이 후원하는 싱어송라이터 경연 대회 '히든 스테이지'에 즌(zn)과 오아(OHAH)가 본선 무대를 펼친다. '히든 스테이지' 운영사무국은 매주 금요일 2팀씩 10주에 걸쳐 총 20팀의 영상을 순차적으로 공개한다. 31일 뉴스핌의 유튜브 채널 '뉴스핌TV'를 통해 즌은 '꼭 작별 인사인 것처럼'을, 오아는 '빛날 테니까'를 선보인다. [서울=뉴스핌] 이지은 기자 = '히든 스테이지' 본선 진출자 즌(zn, 위)과 오아(OHAH, 아래). 2026.07.30 alice09@newspim.com 먼저 오아는 '히든 스테이지' 지원 동기에 대해 "어릴 때부터 음악을 통해 많은 용기와 긍정 에너지를 선물 받아왔다. 이제는 저 역시 누군가에게 그런 마음을 전하는 아티스트가 되고 싶다는 꿈을 가지고 음악을 하고 있다"라고 말했다. 이어 "'히든 스테이지'는 제 음악과 이야기를 더 많은 사람들에게 들려줄 수 있는 기회라고 느껴 지원하게 됐다"라고 밝혔다. 오아가 선보인 '빛날 테니까'는 현실의 차가움과 불확실성 속에서도 스스로를 믿고 나아가자는 메시지를 담고 있다. 그는 "빛을 잃은 것 같은 순간조차 결국 더 강하게 반짝이기 위한 과정임을 노래하며, 청춘의 불안과 희망을 동시에 담아낸 곡"이라고 설명했다. 또한 "이 곡은 제가 세상에 보내는 응원이자, 지금을 견디고 있는 모든 이들에게 건네는 약속"이라고 소개했다. [서울=뉴스핌] 이지은 기자 = '히든 스테이지' 본선 진출자 오아. 2026.07.30 alice09@newspim.com 오아는 '히든 스테이지'를 통해 강렬한 포부를 던졌다. 그는 "열정과 꿈, 그리고 자유의 상징인 록페스티벌 무대에 섭외 0순위가 되는 것이 꿈"이라고 밝혔다. 또 "그리고 삶을 마무리하는 날까지 힘이 닿는 한 계속 무대에 서서 노래하고 싶다"라며 "제가 가진 긍정적인 에너지를 음악에 담아 더 많은 사람들에게 전하고, 제 노래를 듣는 순간만큼은 마음껏 웃고 행복할 수 있었으면 좋겠다"고 전했다. 즌은 이번 오디션을 통해 첫 도전에 나섰다. 즈은은 "대학 재학 내내 졸업 후 취업하는 것이 목표라고 말했다. 막상 졸업하고 나니, 앞으로 제 음악을 할 기회가 없을 수도 있단 생각에 슬퍼졌다"고 운을 뗐다. 이어 "그간 입밖으로 말해왔던 내 목표는 어쩌면 실패를 두려워하는 방어적인 마음에 말했던 진짜 제 목표가 아니라는 생각이 들었다"라며 "더 늦기 전에 도전해보고 싶어졌고, '히든 스테이지'는 제 첫 도전"이라고 강조했다. 즌은 본선에서 자작곡 '꼭 작별 인사인 것처럼'을 선곡했으며, 이 곡은 그의 첫 자작곡이기도 하다. [서울=뉴스핌] 이지은 기자 = '히든 스테이지' 본선 진출자 즌. 2026.07.30 alice09@newspim.com 즌은 "이 곡을 쓸 당시 유독 사람이 어려웠던 20대 초반이었다. '사랑해'라는 말이 꼭 작별 인사라도 되는 듯 내가 사랑하는 사람들은 다 나를 떠나는 것 같았다. 이 곡은 혼자 남겨진 채 중얼거리는 혼잣말 같은 노래"라고 설명했다. 다채로운 장르를 선보이고 있는 '히든 스테이지'의 본선 진출 20팀은 여성 솔로 11명, 남성 솔로 5명, 남성 팀 2팀, 혼성 팀 2팀이다. 여성 참가자로는 보리, 김나라, 박희수, 혼즈, 변미리, 오아, 신직선, 도이주, 마린, 채수빈, 박지은 등 11명이 이름을 올렸다. 남성 개인 부문에서는 정상호(활동명 정점)·최혁준(심각한 개구리), 윤준, 윤태경, 정다운이 본선에 올랐다. 팀 부문에는 남성 팀 구구, 블낫블과 혼성 팀 김은찬밴드와 채비가 참가한다. 이 중 신직선은 제2회 본선 경험을 가진 재도전자이며, 혼성팀 채비 역시 제3회 본선 출신으로 주목받고 있다. '히든 스테이지'의 마지막 영상은 오는 8월 28일 업로드된다. 9월 10일부터 14일까지 심사위원단 2차 본선 심사가 진행되고, 9월 25일 결승 진출 톱10이 발표된다. 시상 규모는 총 1200만 원이다. 문화체육관광부 장관상인 대상(500만 원)을 비롯해 한국콘텐츠진흥원장상 최우수상(300만 원)·우수상(200만 원)·루키상(200만 원) 등이 수여된다. alice09@newspim.com 2026-07-31 06:00
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