Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting on October 12 and 13, 2006
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IV. Summary of Discussions on Monetary Policy for the Immediate Future
On the monetary policy stance for the immediate future, members agreed that,
based on their assessment of the economic and financial situation, it was appropriate to maintain the current guideline for money market operations that the Bank would encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.25 percent.
Members concurred that the money market had been generally stable. Members
noted the fact that the weighted average of the uncollateralized overnight call rate had been at around 0.25 percent, and agreed that the Bank had managed the interest rate well overall.
A few members said that market participants had become accustomed to trading in the current financial environment. One member, referring to the fact that the use of the complementary lending facility had increased on the day of semiannual book closings, expressed the view that the current loan rate applied to the facility (the basic loan rate) might be slightly too low. A different member said that not only the Bank's flexible conduct of money market operations but also the presence of the complementary lending facility had contributed to the recent stability of the money market, even on September 29, the day of the first semiannual book closings after the Bank brought the zero interest rate environment to an end.
Regarding the future path of monetary policy, members said that the Bank would conduct monetary policy by carefully assessing economic activity and prices. Members concurred that, if developments in economic activity and prices followed the Bank's projection presented in the April Outlook Report, it would be appropriate to conduct monetary policy in line with the thinking described in it that the Bank would adjust the level of the policy interest rate gradually in the light of developments in economic activity and prices. They also agreed that it was important that the Bank explain carefully that the timing of any policy change depended on developments in economic activity and prices.
Many members said that, because some economic indicators tended to fluctuate
widely and often deviated noticeably from the underlying trend in the short term, they should be assessed appropriately taking their characteristics fully into consideration.
These members also called attention to the point that a temporary swing of an indicator could cause the market and the Bank to have different views on economic activity and prices. In this regard, one member said that the Bank should continue to explain carefully that the rebasing of the CPI from a 2000 base to a 2005 base and the consequent negative divergence from the 2000 base in the inflation rate did not mean that its basic assessment of
prices needed to be changed. Following this comment, members reaffirmed the
importance of explaining thoroughly to the market and the public its assessment of economic and financial developments and its basic thinking about the conduct of monetary policy. One member commented that the next issue of the Outlook Report was very important in terms of the Bank's communication with the market, and therefore the member would like to discuss in depth at the next meeting what messages should be included in it.
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