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버냉키, '전국 및 지역경제 개괄' 연설문(원문)

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※ 번역할 언어 선택

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke

National and regional economic overview

At the presentation of the Citizen of the Carolinas Award, Charlotte Chamber of Commerce, Charlotte, North Carolina
November 29, 2007

Good evening. I thank the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce for bestowing on me this year’s Citizen of the Carolinas Award. I deeply appreciate the honor, and I am grateful for the opportunity it gives me to speak to you this evening. I am also delighted to be here in Charlotte. My wife Anna and I are looking forward to visiting family and friends during our time here in the Queen City.

The focus of my brief remarks this evening will be the Charlotte region and how the area and the economy have changed since I regularly visited my grandparents here some four-and-a-half decades ago. First, though, I would like to share a few thoughts on the U.S. economy and the considerations that we at the Federal Reserve will be weighing as we prepare for our policy meeting on December 11, less than two weeks from now.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the monetary policy making arm of the Federal Reserve System, last met on October 30-31. At that meeting, the Committee cut its target for the federal funds rate, the key policy interest rate, by 25 basis points (1/4 of a percentage point), following a cut of 50 basis points in September. Economic growth in the period leading up to the October meeting had proven quite strong, as confirmed by this morning’s figures on third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). At its meeting, however, Committee members took the view that tightening credit conditions--the product of ongoing stresses in financial markets--and some intensification of the correction in the housing sector were likely to restrain economic activity going forward. Specifically, growth appeared likely to slow significantly in the fourth quarter from its rapid third-quarter rate and to remain sluggish in early 2008. The Committee expected that economic growth would thereafter gradually return to a pace approaching its long-run trend as the drag from housing subsided and financial conditions improved. Inflation was seen as edging down next year, approaching rates consistent with price stability; however, the Committee remained concerned about the possible effects of higher energy costs and the lower foreign exchange value of the dollar, especially the risk that they might lead to an increase in the public’s long-term inflation expectations.

How has the economic picture changed in the month since that meeting? As is often the case, the incoming economic data have been mixed. In the market for residential real estate, indicators of construction and home sales have continued to be weak. In contrast, the labor market remained solid in October, with some 130,000 new jobs added to private-sector payrolls and the unemployment rate remaining at 4.7 percent. Claims for unemployment insurance have drifted up a bit in recent weeks, although, on average, they have remained at a level consistent with moderate expansion in employment. We will, of course, have the labor market report for November next week, and in the coming days we will continue to draw on anecdotal reports, surveys, and other sources of information about employment and wages. Continued good performance by the labor market is important for maintaining the economic expansion, as growth in earnings helps to underpin household spending.

With respect to household spending, the data received over the past month have been on the soft side. The Committee will have considerable additional information on consumer purchases and sentiment to digest before its next meeting. I expect household income and spending to continue to grow, but the combination of higher gas prices, the weak housing market, tighter credit conditions, and declines in stock prices seem likely to create some headwinds for the consumer in the months ahead.

Core inflation--that is, inflation excluding the relatively more volatile prices of food and energy--has remained moderate. However, the price of crude oil has continued its rise over the past month, a rise that will be reflected in gasoline and heating oil prices and, of course, in the overall inflation rate in the near term. Moreover, increases in food prices and in the prices of some imported goods have the potential to put additional pressures on inflation and inflation expectations. The effectiveness of monetary policy depends critically on maintaining the public’s confidence that inflation will be well controlled. We are accordingly monitoring inflation developments closely.

The incoming data on economic activity and prices will help to shape the Committee’s outlook for the economy; however, the outlook has also been importantly affected over the past month by renewed turbulence in financial markets, which has partially reversed the improvement that occurred in September and October. Investors have focused on continued credit losses and write-downs across a number of financial institutions, prompted in many cases by credit-rating agencies’ downgrades of securities backed by residential mortgages. The fresh wave of investor concern has contributed in recent weeks to a decline in equity values, a widening of risk spreads for many credit products (not only those related to housing), and increased short-term funding pressures. These developments have resulted in a further tightening in financial conditions, which has the potential to impose additional restraint on activity in housing markets and in other credit-sensitive sectors. Needless to say, the Federal Reserve is following the evolution of financial conditions carefully, with particular attention to the question of how strains in financial markets might affect the broader economy.

In sum, as I have indicated, we will be receiving a good deal of relevant information in the coming days. In making its policy decision, the Committee will have to judge whether the outlook for the economy or the balance of risks has shifted materially. In doing so, we will take full account of the implications for the outlook of both the incoming economic data and the ongoing developments in the financial markets.

Economic forecasting is always difficult, but the current stresses in financial markets make the uncertainty surrounding the outlook even greater than usual. We at the Federal Reserve will have to remain exceptionally alert and flexible as we continue to assess how best to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability in the United States.

Charlotte and the Carolinas: Personal Connections
I’d like now to speak a bit about Charlotte and the region from a personal as well as an economic perspective. My family has a long connection with Charlotte. My maternal grandparents, originally immigrants from Eastern Europe, moved here from Connecticut when my mother was a teenager, and she finished high school here. My parents met while attending different campuses of the University of North Carolina--my father at UNC-Chapel Hill, my mother at UNC-Greensboro (then a women’s college). I was raised from early childhood in the small town of Dillon, South Carolina, about two hours from here. My family settled in Dillon because my paternal grandfather bought a drug store there in 1941, and my father and his brother followed in his footsteps as town pharmacists. In Dillon, a town that was always very short of the more regular kind of doctor, my father and uncle were popularly known as Dr. Phil and Dr. Mort, and the prescriptions they dispensed were often accompanied by their free advice on maintaining good health.

I often visited my maternal grandparents’ home on Cumberland Avenue in Charlotte, sometimes with my parents and sometimes on my own, and I have many fond memories of those visits. A short walk from their home was a park where my grandfather often took me to feed the ducks that lived on a lake there. The name of that spot--Freedom Park--was sufficiently like my grandparents’ surname--Friedman--for me as a small child to conclude that it was actually called Friedman Park. I was suitably impressed by the honor the city authorities had apparently given my grandparents. Grandpa Friedman taught me to play chess when I was five or six; he let me win at first, but after a few years I was no longer a pushover, and the games became very, very serious. Grandma Friedman was a wonderful cook, and if you dig deep enough into the archives of the Charlotte Observer, you will find a large photo of a much younger me under the headline, “Ben Loves Grandma’s Blintzes,” together with her recipe for that dish. Unfortunately, my grandmother died when I was thirteen, and when my grandfather came to live with us in Dillon, the regular trips to Charlotte ended. I am pleased to say, though, that my connection to this city has since been re-established, as my parents have retired to Charlotte, and my brother (a lawyer in town) and his family live here, too. So I still feel like an honorary Charlottean as well as a Carolinian.

In my periodic visits to the Carolinas, I have been enormously impressed by the social and economic changes that have emerged in what has aptly been called the New South. This transformation has not been easy. In Dillon in the 1960s, I attended a segregated public school; but I did have African-American friends, and one of them was instrumental in persuading me to attend Harvard University--a critical step, as it turned out, in my life and career. Now, in Dillon, Charlotte, and elsewhere in the Carolinas, I see increasing cooperation among people of different races and backgrounds to achieve common civic and economic goals.

The Transformation of the Economy in the Carolinas
Economically speaking, Carolinians have faced the same challenge confronting many other parts of the country, that is, to replace jobs lost in old-line manufacturing industries by creating jobs in services such as health care and hospitality while simultaneously adapting to globalization and advancing technology. Here as elsewhere, the Carolinas have met this challenge through education and by building on regional strengths. As I’ve stressed on previous occasions, the quality of the workforce is the single most important factor in an economy’s success. In a rapidly changing world, economically valuable skills can be maintained only through learning that extends beyond traditional schooling to encompass training and re-training well into the middle years of life.

North Carolina offers a good example of these trends. In the past decade, the state has lost about one-third of the manufacturing jobs it had at the beginning of the decade--a loss of about 250,000 jobs. About 60 percent of the losses occurred in the textile and apparel industries. In the textile mills in particular, employment across the state is down two-thirds from the level of ten years ago. In the furniture industry, which accounts for the largest share of the remaining job losses in North Carolina manufacturing, employment in the state has dropped from 82,000 in 1999 to less than 51,000. The Charlotte area itself has experienced a number of plant closings, including the 2003 shutdown of the Pillowtex plant in nearby Kannapolis.

There is, of course, another side to the coin of economic change here. Despite losing an average of 25,000 manufacturing jobs each year over the past decade, North Carolina has managed a net increase of 44,000 jobs per year in total nonfarm employment over the same period. Those two numbers together imply that, on average, North Carolina has enjoyed an annual net gain of 69,000 nonmanufacturing jobs. The largest net increases have been in education and health care, professional and business services, and the leisure and hospitality sector. Thus, like many other vibrant regions of the country, the Charlotte area has grown by developing a high-productivity service economy.

Indeed, what happened to the former Pillowtex site itself is a good metaphor for the transformation under way in the region. Though the loss of manufacturing jobs is painful, the ongoing development of the Pillowtex site as the North Carolina Research Campus illustrates this region’s ability to shift resources from industries that are shrinking to those that are expanding The North Carolina Research Campus is a public-private, 350-acre life sciences hub near Charlotte that includes partnerships with Duke University, the University of North Carolina, the North Carolina Community College System, and other institutions of higher education. This is one high-profile example, but the transformation has also been happening in less dramatic fashion through the development of hundreds of smaller businesses throughout the region.

Even within the manufacturing sector, a number of firms--typically smaller operations with relatively few employees--have begun to exploit nontraditional niches. Some recent examples of emerging industrial operations across the state include primary metal manufacturing, machinery production, and the manufacture of nonwoven fabrics (Employment Security Commission of North Carolina, 2007). That last category includes a remarkably wide variety of engineered fabrics, ranging from those used to make doctors’ and nurses’ operating-room garb to some used in roofing materials; those products are especially interesting because they represent a small but fast-growing segment of specialty textiles within the broader textile industry.

The transformation of this region has been aided by its reputation as a desirable location in which to live and work. Census data and statistics from interstate moving companies indicate a heavy flow of people moving into Charlotte from other states, including large numbers of educated workers. Overall, the area has gained an average of 39,000 net new residents every year since 1997. (You probably feel that you see all those people every day in traffic.) Without a doubt, Charlotte’s status as one of the preeminent financial centers of the country lies behind much of the inflow.

Importance of Charlotte as a Financial Services Center
Charlotte’s roots as a financial center stretch back two centuries. From 1800 to 1848, the city was the center of U.S. gold production, and a branch of the U.S. Mint operated here from 1837 to 1913. More recently, North Carolina’s legal framework has been important to the growth of the banking system. Because the state had long allowed in-state branch banking, homegrown banks here had a head start when interstate banking became possible--first regionally, in the mid-1980s, and then nationally with the 1994 passage of the Riegle-Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act (Hills, 2007).

North Carolina’s early adoption of branch banking is a good example of a “first mover” gaining a strategic advantage. The banking statutes allowed banks in North Carolina to become larger than their counterparts in other states and helped them develop expertise in running larger branch networks. The result has been a rapid increase in the size of banks located in the state: In 1970, only three banks from the entire South, including two from North Carolina, were among the fifty largest U.S. banks ranked by assets, today, three of the top ten U.S. banks are headquartered in Charlotte alone (Hills, 2007).

One of the key advantages of Charlotte and other metropolitan centers in North Carolina has been the ability to attract and retain educated workers: Among adults aged 25 or older, 31 percent in metro centers hold at least a bachelor’s degree, versus 17 percent in rural areas (U.S. Census Bureau, 2006). In some cases, growing urban areas like Charlotte are the beneficiaries of a positive dynamic: The city’s modern, service-oriented economy attracts skilled and educated workers; the presence of a skilled workforce attracts new firms to the area and also promotes the development of amenities such as high-end restaurants and cultural activities; these opportunities and amenities then attract additional highly skilled workers.

The Challenge of Education in North Carolina
Cities like Charlotte will probably continue to attract highly educated and skilled workers from other areas of the country, but improving the skills of local workers--especially those displaced by industries in decline--remains critical for both urban and rural areas in the state. Four-year institutions play an important role in meeting that challenge, but they are not the sole means for developing workforce skills. For example, in the 2004-05 school year, the North Carolina Community College System served nearly 780,000 students in fifty-eight institutions. The average community college student in the state is thirty years old and likely working while attending school (North Carolina Community College System, 2006). Because they offer education closely tailored to employer demands in the local workplace, community colleges in North Carolina, as elsewhere, play an essential role in training and retraining workers. Moreover, they do so at a relatively low cost. In general, we must move beyond the view that education is something that takes place only in K-through-12 schools and four-year colleges, as important as those are. Education and skills must be provided flexibly and to people of any age.

I will close my comments on education with a pitch for financial literacy. In today’s complex financial marketplace, a basic understanding of financial tools and markets and an appreciation of the need to budget, save, invest, and borrow wisely are critical to the financial health of every individual. The Federal Reserve is advancing financial literacy locally through the Charlotte Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The Branch has active partnerships with organizations involved in financial literacy and economic education, including among others Jump$tart, Junior Achievement, LifeSmarts, Communities in Schools, the North Carolina Council on Economic Education, and the North Carolina Bankers Association. In short, advancing financial literacy is a high priority at the Federal Reserve.

Conclusion
I’d like to conclude by again expressing my gratitude to the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce for honoring me with its Citizen of the Carolinas Award. I am indeed proud to consider myself a citizen of the Carolinas and of the region. Thank you very much.


References
Employment Security Commission of North Carolina (2007). “Employment and Wages by Industry, 1990 to Most Recent,” Leaving the Board www.ncesc.com/lmi/industry/industrymain.asp.

Hills, Thomas D. (2007). “The Rise of Southern Banking and the Disparities among the States following the Southeastern Regional Banking Compact (225 KB PDF),” Leaving the Board Balance Sheet, vol. 11, pp. 57-104, http://studentorgs.law.unc.edu/ncbank/balancesheet.

North Carolina Community College System (2006). “Get the Facts,” Leaving the Board press release, July 3, www.ncccs.cc.nc.us/News_Releases/GetTheFacts.htm.

U.S. Census Bureau (2006). “2005 American Community Survey,” www.census.gov/acs Leaving the Board.

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김정은, 2018년 서울답방 하루전 취소 [서울=뉴스핌] 이영종 통일전문기자 = 문재인 정부 당시인 2018년 12월 김정은 북한 국무위원장이 서울 방문 일정을 확정하고도 "정치국 위원들이 반대한다"는 이유를 들어 남북 공동발표 하루 전 취소했다는 주장이 19일 제기됐다. [서울=뉴스핌] 이영종 통일전문기자 = 남북 정상회담 개최를 위한 대북 특사로 2018년 3월 5일 평양을 방문한 정의용 당시 청와대 국가안보실장이 김정은 북한 국무위원장에게 문재인 당시 대통령의 친서를 전달하고 있다. 왼쪽부터 윤건영 청와대 국정상황실장, 서훈 국가정보원장, 천해성 통일부 차관, 정의용 특사, 김정은, 김여정 노동당 제1부부장(당시 직책). [사진=청와대 제공] 2026.01.19 yjlee@newspim.com 당시 남북 정상회담 개최를 위한 대북특사 역할을 맡았던 윤건영 더불어민주당 의원은 저서 '판문점 프로젝트'(김영사)에서 "김정은 위원장이 9월 문재인 당시 대통령의 평양 방문과 정상회담이 열린 이후 12월 13~14일 서울을 방문키로 약속했다"면서 "삼성전자와 남산타워‧고척돔 방문 등 일정이 잡혀 있었다"고 밝혔다. 비밀리에 답방을 추진하기 위해 '북한산'이란 코드네임도 붙였고, 경호문제 등을 고려해 숙소는 남산에 자리한 반얀트리호텔로 정했다. 윤 의원은 책에서 "남북한은 11월 26일 김정은의 서울 답방을 공동 발표키로 했지만, 하루 전 북측이 "정치국 위원들이 신변안전을 우려해 '도로를 막겠다', '위원직을 사퇴하겠다'며 결사 반대한다"는 입장을 전해와 무산됐다고 주장했다. 북한은 당시 "김 위원장도 정치국 위원들의 뜻을 무시하고 서울을 방문할 수 없다"고 전해왔고, 우리 측이 문 당시 대통령의 신변안전 보장 서한을 전달했지만 결국 성사되지 못했다는 게 윤 의원은 설명이다. 하지만 김정은의 결정을 노동당 정치국 위원들이 반대했다는 건 북한 체제의 특성상 논리가 맞지 않는 것으로, 서울 답방을 하지 않으려는 핑계에 불과한 것으로 보인다. [서울=뉴스핌] 이영종 통일전문기자 = 지난해 12월 9~11일 열린 노동당 제8기 13차 전원회의에서 김정은 노동당 총비서 겸 국무위원장이 간부들과 이야기 하고 있다. [사진=노동신문] 2026.01.19 yjlee@newspim.com 김정은의 아버지인 김정일 국방위원장도 2000년 6월 평양 정상회담 공동선언에서 '서울 답방'을 약속했지만, 10년 넘게 지키지 않았고 결국 2011년 사망했다. 윤 의원도 책에서 "북측은 김 위원장의 경호와 안전 문제로 노동당 정치국이 유례없이 반발한다는 다소 황당한 근거를 내세웠지만 실제로는 미국의 (북미대화) 압력에 순응한 것"이라고 분석했다. 당시 청와대 국정실장을 맡고 있던 윤 의원은 정의용 안보실장 등과 함께 2018년 3월과 9월 평양을 방문해 특사 자격으로 김정은과 만났다. 윤 의원은 책에서 그해 3월 5일 평양 노동당 본부청사에서 만났을 때 김정은이 "김일성 주석의 유훈인 조선반도(한반도) 비핵화 원칙이 달라진 건 없다"며 "군사적 위협이 제거되고 정전 체제에서 안전이 조성된다면 우리가 핵을 보유할 이유가 없다"고 말한 것으로 전했다. [서울=뉴스핌] 이영종 통일전문기자 = 김정은 북한 국무위원장과 리설주 부부가 2018년 4월 1일 남측 예술단의 평양공연을 관람한 뒤 가수들과 기념촬영을 했다. 김정은 오른쪽이 가수 백지영 씨. [사진=뉴스핌 자료] 2026.01.19 yjlee@newspim.com 또 면담을 마치면서 "비인간적 사람으로 남고 싶지 않다"며 자신을 믿어달라는 입장도 밝힌 것으로 윤 의원은 덧붙였다. 하지만 김정은은 이듬해 2월 자신의 핵 집착과 회담 전략 실패 등으로 북미 하노이 정상회담이 파국을 맞자 문재인 대통령을 항해 "삶은 소대가리" 운운하는 격렬한 비방을 퍼부었고 남북관계는 현재까지 파국을 면치 못하고 있다. 김정은은 2년 전부터 남북관계를 적대관계로 규정하고 '한국=제1주적'이라며 차단막을 쳐왔다. 윤 의원은 김정은이 2018년 4월 1일 남측 예술단의 평양 공연 때 가수 백지영 씨가 부른 노래 '총 맞은 것처럼'을 듣고 "북측 젊은이들이 따라 부르면 심각한 상황이 오겠다"는 언급을 한 것으로 전했다. 김정은은 2020년 12월 반동사상문화배격법을 만들어 한국 드라마와 영화를 단순 시청하는 경우에도 징역 5~15년을 선고하는 등 한류문화를 철저하게 단속하고 있다.   [서울=뉴스핌] 이영종 통일전문기자 = 2018년 남북 정상회담 대북특사 비화를 담은 윤건영 더불어민주당 의원의 책 '판문점 프로젝트' [사진=김영사] 2026.01.19 yjlee@newspim.com yjlee@newspim.com 2026-01-19 07:46
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李대통령 국정지지율 53% [리얼미터] [서울=뉴스핌] 박찬제 기자 = 이재명 대통령의 국정수행 지지율이 3주만에 하락세로 53.1%를 기록했다는 여론조사가 19일 나왔다. 여론조사 리얼미터가 에너지경제신문 의뢰로 지난 5일부터 9일까지 전국 18살 이상 유권자 2516명을 대상으로 이 대통령 국정수행 평가 조사를 실시한 결과다.  이 대통령이 '잘한다'는 긍정 평가는 지난주보다 3.7%포인트(p) 낮은 53.1%였다. 이재명 대통령과 여야 6개 정당 지도부가 16일 오후 청와대 상춘재에서 오찬 간담회를 하고 있다. [사진=청와대] '잘못한다' 부정평가는 4.4%p 오른 42.2%였다. 긍·부정 격차는 10.9%p다. '잘 모름' 응답은 4.8%였다. 리얼미터 측은 "코스피 4800선 돌파와 한일 정상회담 등 경제·외교 성과가 있었는데도 정부의 검찰개혁안을 둘러싼 당정 이견 노출과 여권 인사들의 공천헌금 의혹 등 도덕성 논란이 겹치며 지지율이 하락세를 보였다"고 분석했다. 지난달 15∼16일 전국 18살 이상 1004명을 대상으로 한 정당 지지도 조사에서는 더불어민주당 42.5%, 국민의힘 37.0%의 지지율을 보였다. 민주당 지지율은 5.3%p가 떨어지며 4주 만에 하락세로 빠졌다. 국민의힘은 반면 3.5%p 상승하며 4주 만에 반등했다. 개혁신당 3.3%, 조국혁신당 2.5%, 진보당 1.7%였다. 무당층은 11.5%였다. 리얼미터는 민주당의 경우 강선우·김병기 의원 공천헌금 의혹 수사 본격화로 도덕성 논란이 지지율 하락 원인이라고 분석했다. 중대범죄수사청(중수청)과 공소청법을 둘러싼 당정 갈등도 지지율 하락 원인으로 봤다.  반면 국민의힘은 특검의 윤석열 전 대통령 사형 구형과 한동훈 제명 논란으로 대구·경북(TK)과 보수층 등 전통 지지층이 결집한 것이 지지율 반등 원인이라고 리얼미터 측은 분석했다. 대통령 국정수행 지지도 조사는 신뢰수준 95%에 표준오차는 ±2.0%p, 정당 지지도는 95% 신뢰수준에 표본오차 ±3.1%p다. 대통령 국정수행 지지도 조사 응답률은 4.5%, 정당 지지도 조사 응답률은 3.8%였다. 보다 자세한 내용은 중앙선거여론조사심의위원회 홈페이지 참조하면 된다. pcjay@newspim.com 2026-01-19 09:25
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