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버냉키, '전국 및 지역경제 개괄' 연설문(원문)

기사입력 : 2007년11월30일 09:02

최종수정 : 2007년11월30일 09:02

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke

National and regional economic overview

At the presentation of the Citizen of the Carolinas Award, Charlotte Chamber of Commerce, Charlotte, North Carolina
November 29, 2007

Good evening. I thank the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce for bestowing on me this year’s Citizen of the Carolinas Award. I deeply appreciate the honor, and I am grateful for the opportunity it gives me to speak to you this evening. I am also delighted to be here in Charlotte. My wife Anna and I are looking forward to visiting family and friends during our time here in the Queen City.

The focus of my brief remarks this evening will be the Charlotte region and how the area and the economy have changed since I regularly visited my grandparents here some four-and-a-half decades ago. First, though, I would like to share a few thoughts on the U.S. economy and the considerations that we at the Federal Reserve will be weighing as we prepare for our policy meeting on December 11, less than two weeks from now.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the monetary policy making arm of the Federal Reserve System, last met on October 30-31. At that meeting, the Committee cut its target for the federal funds rate, the key policy interest rate, by 25 basis points (1/4 of a percentage point), following a cut of 50 basis points in September. Economic growth in the period leading up to the October meeting had proven quite strong, as confirmed by this morning’s figures on third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). At its meeting, however, Committee members took the view that tightening credit conditions--the product of ongoing stresses in financial markets--and some intensification of the correction in the housing sector were likely to restrain economic activity going forward. Specifically, growth appeared likely to slow significantly in the fourth quarter from its rapid third-quarter rate and to remain sluggish in early 2008. The Committee expected that economic growth would thereafter gradually return to a pace approaching its long-run trend as the drag from housing subsided and financial conditions improved. Inflation was seen as edging down next year, approaching rates consistent with price stability; however, the Committee remained concerned about the possible effects of higher energy costs and the lower foreign exchange value of the dollar, especially the risk that they might lead to an increase in the public’s long-term inflation expectations.

How has the economic picture changed in the month since that meeting? As is often the case, the incoming economic data have been mixed. In the market for residential real estate, indicators of construction and home sales have continued to be weak. In contrast, the labor market remained solid in October, with some 130,000 new jobs added to private-sector payrolls and the unemployment rate remaining at 4.7 percent. Claims for unemployment insurance have drifted up a bit in recent weeks, although, on average, they have remained at a level consistent with moderate expansion in employment. We will, of course, have the labor market report for November next week, and in the coming days we will continue to draw on anecdotal reports, surveys, and other sources of information about employment and wages. Continued good performance by the labor market is important for maintaining the economic expansion, as growth in earnings helps to underpin household spending.

With respect to household spending, the data received over the past month have been on the soft side. The Committee will have considerable additional information on consumer purchases and sentiment to digest before its next meeting. I expect household income and spending to continue to grow, but the combination of higher gas prices, the weak housing market, tighter credit conditions, and declines in stock prices seem likely to create some headwinds for the consumer in the months ahead.

Core inflation--that is, inflation excluding the relatively more volatile prices of food and energy--has remained moderate. However, the price of crude oil has continued its rise over the past month, a rise that will be reflected in gasoline and heating oil prices and, of course, in the overall inflation rate in the near term. Moreover, increases in food prices and in the prices of some imported goods have the potential to put additional pressures on inflation and inflation expectations. The effectiveness of monetary policy depends critically on maintaining the public’s confidence that inflation will be well controlled. We are accordingly monitoring inflation developments closely.

The incoming data on economic activity and prices will help to shape the Committee’s outlook for the economy; however, the outlook has also been importantly affected over the past month by renewed turbulence in financial markets, which has partially reversed the improvement that occurred in September and October. Investors have focused on continued credit losses and write-downs across a number of financial institutions, prompted in many cases by credit-rating agencies’ downgrades of securities backed by residential mortgages. The fresh wave of investor concern has contributed in recent weeks to a decline in equity values, a widening of risk spreads for many credit products (not only those related to housing), and increased short-term funding pressures. These developments have resulted in a further tightening in financial conditions, which has the potential to impose additional restraint on activity in housing markets and in other credit-sensitive sectors. Needless to say, the Federal Reserve is following the evolution of financial conditions carefully, with particular attention to the question of how strains in financial markets might affect the broader economy.

In sum, as I have indicated, we will be receiving a good deal of relevant information in the coming days. In making its policy decision, the Committee will have to judge whether the outlook for the economy or the balance of risks has shifted materially. In doing so, we will take full account of the implications for the outlook of both the incoming economic data and the ongoing developments in the financial markets.

Economic forecasting is always difficult, but the current stresses in financial markets make the uncertainty surrounding the outlook even greater than usual. We at the Federal Reserve will have to remain exceptionally alert and flexible as we continue to assess how best to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability in the United States.

Charlotte and the Carolinas: Personal Connections
I’d like now to speak a bit about Charlotte and the region from a personal as well as an economic perspective. My family has a long connection with Charlotte. My maternal grandparents, originally immigrants from Eastern Europe, moved here from Connecticut when my mother was a teenager, and she finished high school here. My parents met while attending different campuses of the University of North Carolina--my father at UNC-Chapel Hill, my mother at UNC-Greensboro (then a women’s college). I was raised from early childhood in the small town of Dillon, South Carolina, about two hours from here. My family settled in Dillon because my paternal grandfather bought a drug store there in 1941, and my father and his brother followed in his footsteps as town pharmacists. In Dillon, a town that was always very short of the more regular kind of doctor, my father and uncle were popularly known as Dr. Phil and Dr. Mort, and the prescriptions they dispensed were often accompanied by their free advice on maintaining good health.

I often visited my maternal grandparents’ home on Cumberland Avenue in Charlotte, sometimes with my parents and sometimes on my own, and I have many fond memories of those visits. A short walk from their home was a park where my grandfather often took me to feed the ducks that lived on a lake there. The name of that spot--Freedom Park--was sufficiently like my grandparents’ surname--Friedman--for me as a small child to conclude that it was actually called Friedman Park. I was suitably impressed by the honor the city authorities had apparently given my grandparents. Grandpa Friedman taught me to play chess when I was five or six; he let me win at first, but after a few years I was no longer a pushover, and the games became very, very serious. Grandma Friedman was a wonderful cook, and if you dig deep enough into the archives of the Charlotte Observer, you will find a large photo of a much younger me under the headline, “Ben Loves Grandma’s Blintzes,” together with her recipe for that dish. Unfortunately, my grandmother died when I was thirteen, and when my grandfather came to live with us in Dillon, the regular trips to Charlotte ended. I am pleased to say, though, that my connection to this city has since been re-established, as my parents have retired to Charlotte, and my brother (a lawyer in town) and his family live here, too. So I still feel like an honorary Charlottean as well as a Carolinian.

In my periodic visits to the Carolinas, I have been enormously impressed by the social and economic changes that have emerged in what has aptly been called the New South. This transformation has not been easy. In Dillon in the 1960s, I attended a segregated public school; but I did have African-American friends, and one of them was instrumental in persuading me to attend Harvard University--a critical step, as it turned out, in my life and career. Now, in Dillon, Charlotte, and elsewhere in the Carolinas, I see increasing cooperation among people of different races and backgrounds to achieve common civic and economic goals.

The Transformation of the Economy in the Carolinas
Economically speaking, Carolinians have faced the same challenge confronting many other parts of the country, that is, to replace jobs lost in old-line manufacturing industries by creating jobs in services such as health care and hospitality while simultaneously adapting to globalization and advancing technology. Here as elsewhere, the Carolinas have met this challenge through education and by building on regional strengths. As I’ve stressed on previous occasions, the quality of the workforce is the single most important factor in an economy’s success. In a rapidly changing world, economically valuable skills can be maintained only through learning that extends beyond traditional schooling to encompass training and re-training well into the middle years of life.

North Carolina offers a good example of these trends. In the past decade, the state has lost about one-third of the manufacturing jobs it had at the beginning of the decade--a loss of about 250,000 jobs. About 60 percent of the losses occurred in the textile and apparel industries. In the textile mills in particular, employment across the state is down two-thirds from the level of ten years ago. In the furniture industry, which accounts for the largest share of the remaining job losses in North Carolina manufacturing, employment in the state has dropped from 82,000 in 1999 to less than 51,000. The Charlotte area itself has experienced a number of plant closings, including the 2003 shutdown of the Pillowtex plant in nearby Kannapolis.

There is, of course, another side to the coin of economic change here. Despite losing an average of 25,000 manufacturing jobs each year over the past decade, North Carolina has managed a net increase of 44,000 jobs per year in total nonfarm employment over the same period. Those two numbers together imply that, on average, North Carolina has enjoyed an annual net gain of 69,000 nonmanufacturing jobs. The largest net increases have been in education and health care, professional and business services, and the leisure and hospitality sector. Thus, like many other vibrant regions of the country, the Charlotte area has grown by developing a high-productivity service economy.

Indeed, what happened to the former Pillowtex site itself is a good metaphor for the transformation under way in the region. Though the loss of manufacturing jobs is painful, the ongoing development of the Pillowtex site as the North Carolina Research Campus illustrates this region’s ability to shift resources from industries that are shrinking to those that are expanding The North Carolina Research Campus is a public-private, 350-acre life sciences hub near Charlotte that includes partnerships with Duke University, the University of North Carolina, the North Carolina Community College System, and other institutions of higher education. This is one high-profile example, but the transformation has also been happening in less dramatic fashion through the development of hundreds of smaller businesses throughout the region.

Even within the manufacturing sector, a number of firms--typically smaller operations with relatively few employees--have begun to exploit nontraditional niches. Some recent examples of emerging industrial operations across the state include primary metal manufacturing, machinery production, and the manufacture of nonwoven fabrics (Employment Security Commission of North Carolina, 2007). That last category includes a remarkably wide variety of engineered fabrics, ranging from those used to make doctors’ and nurses’ operating-room garb to some used in roofing materials; those products are especially interesting because they represent a small but fast-growing segment of specialty textiles within the broader textile industry.

The transformation of this region has been aided by its reputation as a desirable location in which to live and work. Census data and statistics from interstate moving companies indicate a heavy flow of people moving into Charlotte from other states, including large numbers of educated workers. Overall, the area has gained an average of 39,000 net new residents every year since 1997. (You probably feel that you see all those people every day in traffic.) Without a doubt, Charlotte’s status as one of the preeminent financial centers of the country lies behind much of the inflow.

Importance of Charlotte as a Financial Services Center
Charlotte’s roots as a financial center stretch back two centuries. From 1800 to 1848, the city was the center of U.S. gold production, and a branch of the U.S. Mint operated here from 1837 to 1913. More recently, North Carolina’s legal framework has been important to the growth of the banking system. Because the state had long allowed in-state branch banking, homegrown banks here had a head start when interstate banking became possible--first regionally, in the mid-1980s, and then nationally with the 1994 passage of the Riegle-Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act (Hills, 2007).

North Carolina’s early adoption of branch banking is a good example of a “first mover” gaining a strategic advantage. The banking statutes allowed banks in North Carolina to become larger than their counterparts in other states and helped them develop expertise in running larger branch networks. The result has been a rapid increase in the size of banks located in the state: In 1970, only three banks from the entire South, including two from North Carolina, were among the fifty largest U.S. banks ranked by assets, today, three of the top ten U.S. banks are headquartered in Charlotte alone (Hills, 2007).

One of the key advantages of Charlotte and other metropolitan centers in North Carolina has been the ability to attract and retain educated workers: Among adults aged 25 or older, 31 percent in metro centers hold at least a bachelor’s degree, versus 17 percent in rural areas (U.S. Census Bureau, 2006). In some cases, growing urban areas like Charlotte are the beneficiaries of a positive dynamic: The city’s modern, service-oriented economy attracts skilled and educated workers; the presence of a skilled workforce attracts new firms to the area and also promotes the development of amenities such as high-end restaurants and cultural activities; these opportunities and amenities then attract additional highly skilled workers.

The Challenge of Education in North Carolina
Cities like Charlotte will probably continue to attract highly educated and skilled workers from other areas of the country, but improving the skills of local workers--especially those displaced by industries in decline--remains critical for both urban and rural areas in the state. Four-year institutions play an important role in meeting that challenge, but they are not the sole means for developing workforce skills. For example, in the 2004-05 school year, the North Carolina Community College System served nearly 780,000 students in fifty-eight institutions. The average community college student in the state is thirty years old and likely working while attending school (North Carolina Community College System, 2006). Because they offer education closely tailored to employer demands in the local workplace, community colleges in North Carolina, as elsewhere, play an essential role in training and retraining workers. Moreover, they do so at a relatively low cost. In general, we must move beyond the view that education is something that takes place only in K-through-12 schools and four-year colleges, as important as those are. Education and skills must be provided flexibly and to people of any age.

I will close my comments on education with a pitch for financial literacy. In today’s complex financial marketplace, a basic understanding of financial tools and markets and an appreciation of the need to budget, save, invest, and borrow wisely are critical to the financial health of every individual. The Federal Reserve is advancing financial literacy locally through the Charlotte Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The Branch has active partnerships with organizations involved in financial literacy and economic education, including among others Jump$tart, Junior Achievement, LifeSmarts, Communities in Schools, the North Carolina Council on Economic Education, and the North Carolina Bankers Association. In short, advancing financial literacy is a high priority at the Federal Reserve.

Conclusion
I’d like to conclude by again expressing my gratitude to the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce for honoring me with its Citizen of the Carolinas Award. I am indeed proud to consider myself a citizen of the Carolinas and of the region. Thank you very much.


References
Employment Security Commission of North Carolina (2007). “Employment and Wages by Industry, 1990 to Most Recent,” Leaving the Board www.ncesc.com/lmi/industry/industrymain.asp.

Hills, Thomas D. (2007). “The Rise of Southern Banking and the Disparities among the States following the Southeastern Regional Banking Compact (225 KB PDF),” Leaving the Board Balance Sheet, vol. 11, pp. 57-104, http://studentorgs.law.unc.edu/ncbank/balancesheet.

North Carolina Community College System (2006). “Get the Facts,” Leaving the Board press release, July 3, www.ncccs.cc.nc.us/News_Releases/GetTheFacts.htm.

U.S. Census Bureau (2006). “2005 American Community Survey,” www.census.gov/acs Leaving the Board.

[뉴스핌 베스트 기사]

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'서부지법 난동' 첫 선고 2명 모두 실형 [서울=뉴스핌] 조승진 기자 = 윤석열 전 대통령의 구속영장 발부 전후인 지난 1월 18∼19일, 서부지법에서 발생한 난동 사건으로 구속기소된 95명 중 2명이 1심에서 실형을 선고받았다. 서울서부지법 형사6단독(재판장 김진성)은 14일 오전 특수건조물침입 등의 혐의로 기소된 김 모 씨와 소모 씨에 대한 선고 공판에서 김 모 씨에게 징역 1년 6개월, 소모 씨에게 징역 1년을 선고했다. 이날 선고는 서부지법 난동 사태 발생 4개월여 만에 나온 첫 선고다.  앞서 검찰은 김씨에게 징역 3년, 소씨에게 징역 2년을 구형했다. 지난 1월19일 오전 서울 마포구 서울서부지방법원 청사 유리창과 벽면이 파손되어 있다. 이날 윤석열 대통령 구속영장이 발부되자 윤 대통령 지지자들이 서울서부지법에 난입해 유리창을 깨고 집기를 훼손하는 등 난동을 부려 경찰이 강제진압에 나섰다. [사진=뉴스핌 DB] 선고는 김 씨부터 진행됐다. 재판부는 "이 사건은 특수건조물 침입, 공용 물건 손상, 특수 공무집행 방해"라며 "피고인이 증거에 관해서 자백하고 있고 보관 증거가 있어서 유죄로 인정된다"고 했다. 이어 "이 사건은 다중위력을 보인 범행이고, 범행 대상은 법원"이라며 "피고인을 포함해서 많은 사람들이 하나의 사건에 연관되었고, 당시 발생한 전체 범행의 결과는 참혹하다"고 설명했다. 그러면서 "대한민국 사법부의 영장 발부 여부를 정치적 음모로 해석 규정하고, 그에 대한 즉각적인 응징, 보복을 이뤄야 한다는 집념과 집착이 이뤄낸 범행"이라고 했다. 재판부는 "다만 이 사건은 공동 범행이 아니라 단독 범행이기 때문에 피고인의 행위에 대해서만 평가한다"면서도 "다중의 위력을 보였다는 부분은 범죄사실에 포함되므로 고려한다"고 말했다. 이어 "피고인은 벽돌 등을 던져, 법원 건물 외벽 타일을 깨뜨렸고, 법원 경내로 들어가 침입했다"며 "법원 내부 진입을 막고 있던 경찰관들을 몸으로 밀어 폭행했다"고 했다. 다만 "피고인이 진지한 반성 태도를 보이고, 우발적으로 범행에 이르게 된 점, 초범인 점, 그밖에 양형 제반 사항을 고려해 징역 1년 6개월에 처한다"고 밝혔다. 이어진 소 씨의 선고에서 재판부는 "피고인이 자백하고 있고 보관 증거 있어 유죄"라고 했다. 그러면서 "피고인은 법원 경내로 들어간 다음 당직실 유리창을 통해 건물 1층 로비까지 들어가 침입했다"며 "화분 물받이로 창고 플라스틱 문을 긁히게 하고, 부서진 타일 조각을 던져 법원 건물 외벽 타일을 손괴했다"고 말했다. 다만 "피고인이 진지한 반성으로 보이고, 우발적 범행에 이르게 된 점, 초범인 점, 그밖에 양형 제반 사항을 고려해 징역 1년에 처한다"고 밝혔다. 이번 선고에 앞서 재판부는 "어제 딸에게 산책하며 '아빠가 어려운 사건을 선고한다'고 했더니 '이재명 사건이냐, 윤석열 사건이냐?'고 묻더라"며 "더 어려운 사건이 있겠구나 싶었지만, 결단과 선고 순간에는 어렵고 쉬운 사건이 없다고 생각한다"고 말했다. 이어 "이 판결문을 머릿속으로 썼다가 지웠다 수없이 반복했다. 오늘 선고를 할지 말지도 많이 고민했다"고 했다. 그러면서 "오늘 선고가 정답이라고 생각지 않는다. 다만 결정과 결단의 문제라고 생각한다"며 "이 선고가 피고인의 남은 인생을 좌우하지 않는다고 생각하고, 남은 생은 피고인 본인답게 살아달라"고 당부했다. 또 "이 사건과 같은 날 있던 전체 사건을 포함해 법원, 경찰 모두 피해자라고 생각한다"며 "그날 직접 피해를 본 법원, 경찰 구성원분들과 지금도 피해를 수습할 관계자분들 노고에 감사하다. 기자들을 포함해 지금도 피해를 수습하는 과정인 거 같다"고 덧붙였다. 이어 "마지막으로 대한민국 어려운 시기에 시민들께서 사법부뿐 아니라 경찰, 검찰, 법원 전체에 지속적으로 관심을 가져주시길 바란다"고 강조했다. chogiza@newspim.com 2025-05-14 11:05
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최정, 500홈런…한화 12연승 끝 [서울=뉴스핌] 장환수 스포츠전문기자= SSG가 7연승 중이던 NC에 짜릿한 역전승을 거두며 간판타자 최정의 KBO리그 첫 통산 500홈런을 자축했다. SSG는 13일 NC와 인천 홈경기에서 6-3으로 승리했다. 11일 KIA와 더블헤더부터 3연승을 달린 SSG는 NC를 제치고 4위 삼성과 승차 없는 5위에 올라섰다. [서울=뉴스핌] 장환수 스포츠전문기자= SSG 최정이 13일 NC와 인천 홈경기에서 6회말 500호 홈런을 날린 뒤 포즈를 취했다. [사진=SSG] 2025.05.13 zangpabo@newspim.com 최정은 0-2로 뒤진 6회말 2사 1루에서 NC 선발 라일리 톰슨의 6구째 시속 135㎞ 슬라이더를 잡아당겨 왼쪽 펜스를 넘기는 시즌 5호 110m 동점 투런포를 쐈다. 500홈런이기에 앞서 삼진 10개를 잡으며 무실점으로 호투하던 톰슨에게 일격을 가한 귀중한 한 방이었다. SSG는 곧 이은 7회초 서재철에게 적시타를 허용해 2-3으로 뒤졌으나 8회말 대거 4점을 뽑으며 역전에 성공했다. 선두 박성한의 볼넷과 최정의 내야 안타로 만든 무사 1, 2루에서 한유섬의 2루타로 3-3 동점을 만들었다. 이어 라이언 맥브룸이 고의볼넷을 얻어 만든 무사 만루에서 최준우의 역전 2타점, 1사 후 정준재의 쐐기 1타점 적시타로 점수 차를 벌렸다. 류현진. [사진=한화] 한화는 두산과 대전 홈경기에서 연장 11회 접전 끝에 3-4로 졌다. 12연승이 중단된 한화는 이날 4연승한 LG에 공동 선두를 허용했다. 두산은 3-3으로 맞선 연장 11회초 강승호의 볼넷 후 대주자로 나간 전다민을 1루에 두고, '1할 타자' 임종성이 좌익선상에 떨어지는 2루타를 날려 귀중한 결승점을 뽑았다. 반면 한화 선발 류현진은 6이닝을 6탈삼진 6안타 1실점으로 막았지만 팀에 승리를 안기지 못했다. 한화는 1-1로 맞선 6회말 무사 만루에서 노시환이 투수 앞 병살타로 물러난 게 뼈아팠다. 연장 11회말에는 노시환의 안타 후 대주자로 나간 이상혁이 채은성의 삼진 때 2루 도루에 실패했다. 이날 두 팀은 한화가 8명, 두산이 6명의 필승조 투수를 모두 투입하는 총력전을 펼쳤다. [서울=뉴스핌] 장환수 스포츠전문기자= 삼성 르윈 디아즈가 13일 kt와 대구 홈경기에서 5회시즌 16호 투런홈런을 날린 뒤 다이아몬드를 돌고 있다. [사진=삼성] 2025.05.13 zangpabo@newspim.com 수석·투수·타격 코치를 교체한 삼성은 kt와 포항 홈경기에서 접전 끝에 5-3으로 승리, 최근 8연패에서 탈출했다. 삼성은 2회말 1사 만루에서 구자욱이 2타점 중전안타로 2-0을 만들었고, 5회말에는 홈런 선두 르윈 디아즈가 시즌 16호 우월 투런홈런을 날려 4-0으로 달아났다. 삼성 선발 이승현은 5이닝을 5안타 무실점으로 막아 시즌 5연패 뒤 첫 승을 신고했다. 반면 kt는 6연패에 빠졌다. 오스틴 딘. [사진 = LG] 잠실에선 LG가 키움을 9-6으로 따돌리고 4연승을 달렸다. 초반 6점 차 리드를 지키지 못하고 6-6으로 동점을 내준 LG는 7회말 오스틴 딘의 솔로 홈런으로 다시 리드를 잡았다. 오스틴은 1회에도 선제 솔로홈런을 날려 한 경기 2홈런을 기록했다. LG는 8회말에는 홍창기와 문성주의 연속 안타로 2점을 보태 승부를 갈랐다. 그러나 LG는 이날 시즌 첫 홈런을 신고하기도 한 붙박이 톱타자 홍창기가 9회초 수비 중 다리를 크게 다쳐 웃을 수 없는 하루가 됐다. 김도영. [사진 = KIA] 광주에선 KIA가 김도영의 결승 2루타를 앞세워 롯데를 4-1로 꺾었다. KIA는 5회말 한승택과 박찬호의 안타로 만든 2사 1,2루에서 김도영이 좌중간 2루타를 터뜨렸고, 최형우가 중전 적시타를 날려 3-0을 만들었다. 8회말에는 김도영의 좌전안타와 볼넷 2개로 만든 무사 만루에서 변우혁의 유격수 병살타 때 1점을 보태 승부를 갈랐다. KIA 선발 김도현은 5.1이닝을 4안타 1실점(비자책)으로 막아 2승(2패)를 올렸다. zangpabo@newspim.com 2025-05-13 22:59
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