March 12, 2008
Bank of Japan
Minutes of the
Monetary Policy Meeting
on February 14 and 15, 2008
(중략)
III. Summary of Discussions on Monetary Policy for the Immediate Future
On the guideline for money market operations for the intermeeting period ahead, members agreed that, given the economic and financial situation, it would be appropriate to maintain the current guideline that the Bank would encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5 percent.
They shared the following view: (1) the pace of growth of Japan's economy seemed to be slowing temporarily mainly due to the drop in
housing investment, but the mechanism of Japan's economic growth basically remained in place, and the economy was likely to continue expanding moderately under price stability; (2) however, global financial markets continued to be unstable, and downside risks to the global economy, especially the U.S. economy, were increasing; (3) there were also some domestic factors that might adversely affect the virtuous circle of growth in production, income, and spending -- for example, sluggish growth of small firms' profits, weakness in wages, and deterioration in consumer sentiment; and (4) in this situation, it was appropriate to carefully examine economic and financial developments at home and abroad to grasp the situation more accurately. One member said that the Bank should continue to conduct money market operations flexibly through the fiscal year-end, giving due consideration to developments in U.S. and European financial markets.
Members concurred that their basic thinking on the monetary policy stance for the future remained unchanged. They agreed that, as risk factors had been increasing both at home and abroad, the Bank should, in a forward-looking manner and in line with the "two
perspectives," assess the levels of uncertainty associated with the projected future paths of the economy and prices, remaining attentive to both upside and downside risks, and make policy decisions based on the assessment. One member commented that the Bank's framework for the conduct of monetary policy was one that enabled the Bank to make comprehensive and consistent assessment of economic and financial developments even in a situation where there was considerable uncertainty about future developments, such as the
present one, and to conduct monetary policy in a forward-looking manner. A different member assessed the outlook for economic activity and prices as well as risks from the "two perspectives," and expressed the following view: there was no need to change the baseline scenario that Japan's economy would return to a moderate growth path, after a slowdown in the short run; and while in the longer run there were upside risks arising from the expectation of interest rates being maintained at low levels, downside risks were increasing both at home and abroad due to, for example, a clearer slowdown in the U.S. economy and deterioration in the sentiment of small firms and consumers in Japan. Based on this view, the member continued that it was appropriate to maintain the basic thinking regarding the conduct of monetary policy, and even more careful consideration was needed in making policy decisions than before. Another member, after expressing the view that it would be some time before the baseline scenario could be judged with greater certainty as likely to materialize, said that the member continued to be of the opinion that, once it was, the Bank should not hesitate to raise the policy interest rate.
(하략)
※출처: 日本銀行(Bank of Japan)
Bank of Japan
Minutes of the
Monetary Policy Meeting
on February 14 and 15, 2008
(중략)
III. Summary of Discussions on Monetary Policy for the Immediate Future
On the guideline for money market operations for the intermeeting period ahead, members agreed that, given the economic and financial situation, it would be appropriate to maintain the current guideline that the Bank would encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5 percent.
They shared the following view: (1) the pace of growth of Japan's economy seemed to be slowing temporarily mainly due to the drop in
housing investment, but the mechanism of Japan's economic growth basically remained in place, and the economy was likely to continue expanding moderately under price stability; (2) however, global financial markets continued to be unstable, and downside risks to the global economy, especially the U.S. economy, were increasing; (3) there were also some domestic factors that might adversely affect the virtuous circle of growth in production, income, and spending -- for example, sluggish growth of small firms' profits, weakness in wages, and deterioration in consumer sentiment; and (4) in this situation, it was appropriate to carefully examine economic and financial developments at home and abroad to grasp the situation more accurately. One member said that the Bank should continue to conduct money market operations flexibly through the fiscal year-end, giving due consideration to developments in U.S. and European financial markets.
Members concurred that their basic thinking on the monetary policy stance for the future remained unchanged. They agreed that, as risk factors had been increasing both at home and abroad, the Bank should, in a forward-looking manner and in line with the "two
perspectives," assess the levels of uncertainty associated with the projected future paths of the economy and prices, remaining attentive to both upside and downside risks, and make policy decisions based on the assessment. One member commented that the Bank's framework for the conduct of monetary policy was one that enabled the Bank to make comprehensive and consistent assessment of economic and financial developments even in a situation where there was considerable uncertainty about future developments, such as the
present one, and to conduct monetary policy in a forward-looking manner. A different member assessed the outlook for economic activity and prices as well as risks from the "two perspectives," and expressed the following view: there was no need to change the baseline scenario that Japan's economy would return to a moderate growth path, after a slowdown in the short run; and while in the longer run there were upside risks arising from the expectation of interest rates being maintained at low levels, downside risks were increasing both at home and abroad due to, for example, a clearer slowdown in the U.S. economy and deterioration in the sentiment of small firms and consumers in Japan. Based on this view, the member continued that it was appropriate to maintain the basic thinking regarding the conduct of monetary policy, and even more careful consideration was needed in making policy decisions than before. Another member, after expressing the view that it would be some time before the baseline scenario could be judged with greater certainty as likely to materialize, said that the member continued to be of the opinion that, once it was, the Bank should not hesitate to raise the policy interest rate.
(하략)
※출처: 日本銀行(Bank of Japan)
