Sovereign Ratings On Korea Affirmed With Stable Outlook On Expectations Of Continued Financial Stability
Publication date: February 17, 2009
SINGAPORE (Standard & Poor's) Feb. 17, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today affirmed its 'A' foreign currency and 'A+' local currency long-term sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of Korea. At the same time, we affirmed our foreign and local currency short-term credit ratings on Korea at 'A-1'. The outlook on the long-term ratings is stable.
"The sovereign credit ratings on Korea are underpinned by a dynamic economy, sound fiscal position and external position," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Kim Eng Tan of the Sovereign Ratings group.
The potential for financial instability poses the main near-term risk to sovereign creditworthiness in Korea. The ongoing global economic slowdown, which worsened abruptly in late 2008, puts considerable pressure on the export-oriented Korean economy. This adds to the drag on economic growth caused by decelerating domestic demand growth and overcapacity in the construction industry. Already facing diminished funding options, the pressure on Korean banks is set to mount as asset quality issues grow.
The government balance sheet could face serious damage if banking sector nonperforming assets rise much more than we currently expect. Nonperforming loans and delinquency rates remain low at this time. Comprehensive policy support for the economy, put in place over the recent months, should also alleviate financial pressures on borrowers and reduce the risk of a surge in bad loans. Nevertheless, economic and financial market uncertainties are now unusually high. The probability of a sudden deterioration in banks' financial position is not insignificant.
"The stable outlook on the ratings on the Korean government reflects our view that financial stability will be maintained despite an anticipated weakening of banks' financial profiles in the near term," Mr. Tan said.
The sovereign credit ratings could be lowered if, against current expectations, the deterioration in banks' financial position triggers systemic instability. Improvements in sovereign credit fundamentals following the normalization of financial and economic conditions could lead to a rating upgrade on the government. This would likely be due to an improvement in the government financial position and successful measures to strengthen the foundation for financial stability in the country.












