영국 신용평가사 피치(Fitch Ratings)가 2일 한국 국가 신용등급 'A+'를 그대로 두면서 등급 전망을 '안정적(Stable)'으로 한단계 격상했다.
다음은 피치가 이날 제출한 보도자료 원문이다.
Fitch Affirms Korea's Sovereign Rating At A+; Outlook Revised to Stable
Fitch Ratings-Singapore/Seoul-02 September 2009: Fitch Ratings has today affirmed the Republic of Korea's (Korea) Long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'A+' and its Long-term local currency IDR at 'AA'. At the same time, the agency has affirmed Korea's Short-term IDR at 'F1' and the Country Ceiling at 'AA'. The Outlook on the ratings is revised to Stable from Negative.
"South Korea's sovereign credit fundamentals have regained ground against the 'A' peer group, warranting an Outlook revision to Stable," said Ai Ling Ngiam, Director, Asia Sovereigns. Earlier pressure on the sovereign's external balance sheet posed by domestic banks' foreign-currency (FC) funding distress during the global credit crunch in Q408 have eased significantly since Q209. Specifically, the need for the Bank of Korea (BOK) to commit its foreign-exchange reserves (FXR) as a backstop to ensure availability of FX liquidity in the local market
and to cover banks' short-term external debt (STXD) obligations has declined, thanks to better global USD liquidity conditions, lower investor risk aversion and banks' improving refinancing ratio for STXD.
Accordingly, the term structure of the banks' external debt has improved, while the banks' repayment of FX liquidity support coupled with FC inflows in both the current and capital accounts have aided a recovery in FXR in 2009 and helped improve Korea's external finance indicators, such that an unlikely event of another severe disruption in global capital markets would now be less damaging for the sovereign. Fitch forecasts Korea's liquidity ratio - which measures its foreign reserves plus banks' foreign assets relative to maturing debt - to register 154%, higher than the 'A' median of 141% in 2010. The agency also
forecasts Korea's gross external financing requirements, including STXD, will clock 75% of its FXR, better than the 'A' median of 109% in 2010.
On the public-finances front, Korea is likely to have avoided large fiscal costs associated with the deleveraging of the banking sector, thanks to easing bank wholesale funding conditions and a quick export-led recovery from a sharp Q408 economic contraction, which resulted in only a mild deterioration in bank asset quality. Fitch anticipates Korea's economic resiliency and the authorities' upcoming efforts to re-establish a conservative fiscal agenda will likely provide scope for the government to revert to a fiscal balance position by 2011, with Korea being only one of six amongst all Fitch-rated sovereigns to do so from a deficit position. Indeed, for the first time since 2007, Fitch forecasts Korea's general government (GG) debt to register less than the 'A' median during the forecast period of 2009-2011, as debt financing requirements of its 'A'-range peers out-pace that of Korea. However, while the rise in explicit government guarantees is likely to stay manageable, Fitch notes that the increased activities of quasi-sovereign entities and higher net non-financial public-sector
debt suggest that implicit sovereign guarantees have increased.
Korea's sovereign ratings continue to balance its credit strengths in terms of fiscal prudence and external finance improvements against potential security risks and reunification costs associated with North Korea. Progress on the action-for-action denuclearisation program has been stalled since December 2008 as issues of sequencing and verification have emerged as significant stumbling blocks. North Korea's aggressive overtures in early 2009 including the launch of short-range missiles and conduct of a second nuclear test in May 2009 raised
concerns that the country may be in pursuit of becoming a permanent nuclear state. Fitch believes additional United Nations sanctions could contribute to further economic isolation of the country, possibly resulting in an eventual increase in unification costs. Fitch considers eventual reunification to be a
large contingent sovereign liability for South Korea, the magnitude of which will depend in part on how reunification takes place.
다음은 피치가 이날 제출한 보도자료 원문이다.
Fitch Affirms Korea's Sovereign Rating At A+; Outlook Revised to Stable
Fitch Ratings-Singapore/Seoul-02 September 2009: Fitch Ratings has today affirmed the Republic of Korea's (Korea) Long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'A+' and its Long-term local currency IDR at 'AA'. At the same time, the agency has affirmed Korea's Short-term IDR at 'F1' and the Country Ceiling at 'AA'. The Outlook on the ratings is revised to Stable from Negative.
"South Korea's sovereign credit fundamentals have regained ground against the 'A' peer group, warranting an Outlook revision to Stable," said Ai Ling Ngiam, Director, Asia Sovereigns. Earlier pressure on the sovereign's external balance sheet posed by domestic banks' foreign-currency (FC) funding distress during the global credit crunch in Q408 have eased significantly since Q209. Specifically, the need for the Bank of Korea (BOK) to commit its foreign-exchange reserves (FXR) as a backstop to ensure availability of FX liquidity in the local market
and to cover banks' short-term external debt (STXD) obligations has declined, thanks to better global USD liquidity conditions, lower investor risk aversion and banks' improving refinancing ratio for STXD.
Accordingly, the term structure of the banks' external debt has improved, while the banks' repayment of FX liquidity support coupled with FC inflows in both the current and capital accounts have aided a recovery in FXR in 2009 and helped improve Korea's external finance indicators, such that an unlikely event of another severe disruption in global capital markets would now be less damaging for the sovereign. Fitch forecasts Korea's liquidity ratio - which measures its foreign reserves plus banks' foreign assets relative to maturing debt - to register 154%, higher than the 'A' median of 141% in 2010. The agency also
forecasts Korea's gross external financing requirements, including STXD, will clock 75% of its FXR, better than the 'A' median of 109% in 2010.
On the public-finances front, Korea is likely to have avoided large fiscal costs associated with the deleveraging of the banking sector, thanks to easing bank wholesale funding conditions and a quick export-led recovery from a sharp Q408 economic contraction, which resulted in only a mild deterioration in bank asset quality. Fitch anticipates Korea's economic resiliency and the authorities' upcoming efforts to re-establish a conservative fiscal agenda will likely provide scope for the government to revert to a fiscal balance position by 2011, with Korea being only one of six amongst all Fitch-rated sovereigns to do so from a deficit position. Indeed, for the first time since 2007, Fitch forecasts Korea's general government (GG) debt to register less than the 'A' median during the forecast period of 2009-2011, as debt financing requirements of its 'A'-range peers out-pace that of Korea. However, while the rise in explicit government guarantees is likely to stay manageable, Fitch notes that the increased activities of quasi-sovereign entities and higher net non-financial public-sector
debt suggest that implicit sovereign guarantees have increased.
Korea's sovereign ratings continue to balance its credit strengths in terms of fiscal prudence and external finance improvements against potential security risks and reunification costs associated with North Korea. Progress on the action-for-action denuclearisation program has been stalled since December 2008 as issues of sequencing and verification have emerged as significant stumbling blocks. North Korea's aggressive overtures in early 2009 including the launch of short-range missiles and conduct of a second nuclear test in May 2009 raised
concerns that the country may be in pursuit of becoming a permanent nuclear state. Fitch believes additional United Nations sanctions could contribute to further economic isolation of the country, possibly resulting in an eventual increase in unification costs. Fitch considers eventual reunification to be a
large contingent sovereign liability for South Korea, the magnitude of which will depend in part on how reunification takes place.
