TANKAN Outline (September 2007)

October 1, 2007
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Number of Sample Enterprises

Manu- Nonmanu- Total (Response
facturing facturing rate)
All Enterprises 4,478 6,272 10,750 ( 98.8%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,242 1,217 2,459 ( 99.2%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,223 1,669 2,892 ( 98.8%)
Small Enterprises 2,013 3,386 5,399 ( 98.5%)

[Responding Period: August 28 to September 28]



Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises
(yen per US dollar)
June 2007 Survey Sept.2007 Survey
FY2006 116.01 -
1H 114.80 -
2H 117.12 -

FY2007 114.40 115.20
1H 114.58 116.10
2H 114.23 114.33





[Business Conditions]
(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)

June 2007 Sept. 2007 Change Dec. 2007 Change
between (Forecast) between
June and Sept. and
Sept. Dec.
[Large Enterprises]
( 22)
Manufacturing 23 23 0 19 - 4
( 23)
Nonmanufacturing 22 20 - 2 21 + 1

[Medium-sized Enterprises]
( 14)
Manufacturing 13 10 - 3 10 0
( 7)
Nonmanufacturing 8 4 - 4 3 - 1

[Small Enterprises]
( 4)
Manufacturing 6 1 - 5 3 + 2
(-10)
Nonmanufacturing - 7 -10 - 3 -11 - 1

[All Enterprises]
( 6)
All industries 7 4 - 3 3 - 1

(Notes) 1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year).
2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.



[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)]
(%points)
June 2007 Sept. 2007 Change Dec. 2007 Change
between (Forecast) between
June and Sept. and
Sept. Dec.

Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises - 7 - 7 0 - 8 - 1
Small Enterprises -21 -22 - 1 -24 - 2

Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of
"Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises 4 4 0 2 - 2
Small Enterprises - 3 - 5 - 2 - 5 0

Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or
somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 12 13 + 1 - -
Small Enterprises 16 15 - 1 - -

Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat
excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 12 12 0 - -
Small Enterprises 16 17 + 1 - -

Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 2 2 0 0 - 2
Small Enterprises - 3 - 4 - 1 - 1 + 3

Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 40 40 0 35 - 5
Small Enterprises 51 52 + 1 52 0



[Sales]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2006 Revision FY2007 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.6 - 4.5 + 1.0
Nonmanufacturing 4.2 - 2.8 + 0.5

[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.9 - 3.0 + 0.5
Nonmanufacturing 6.1 - 3.8 - 0.3

[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.3 - 2.3 + 0.4
Nonmanufacturing 2.2 - 0.0 0.0

[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.8 - 2.7 + 0.4

(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between
the current and the previous survey.


[Current Profits]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2006 Revision FY2007 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 10.6 - 2.9 + 2.7
Nonmanufacturing 10.7 - - 1.2 + 0.5

[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 14.2 - - 3.1 + 1.6
Nonmanufacturing 9.9 - 1.8 - 1.8

[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.9 - - 0.2 - 2.9
Nonmanufacturing 6.5 - - 0.4 - 0.6

[All Enterprises]
All industries 10.1 - 0.5 + 0.8



[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales]
(%, %points)
FY2006 Changes FY2007 Changes
(Forecast)
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.76 - 6.65 + 0.10
Nonmanufacturing 4.29 - 4.12 0.00

[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.07 - 4.78 + 0.05
Nonmanufacturing 2.66 - 2.60 - 0.04

[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.90 - 3.80 - 0.14
Nonmanufacturing 2.48 - 2.47 - 0.02

[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.26 - 4.17 + 0.01



[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2006 Revision FY2007 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 11.7 - 12.1 + 0.8
Nonmanufacturing 9.1 - 6.7 + 1.0
All industries 10.0 - 8.7 + 0.9

[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.2 - 4.1 - 1.2
Nonmanufacturing 6.2 - 5.2 + 1.5
All industries 7.1 - 4.9 + 0.6

[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 25.9 - -13.6 + 6.2
Nonmanufacturing 1.4 - - 8.9 + 7.2
All industries 8.8 - -10.5 + 6.9

[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 13.4 - 6.8 + 1.2
Nonmanufacturing 7.2 - 3.8 + 1.9
All industries 9.4 - 4.9 + 1.7

* Excludes Software Investment

[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses]
(Year-to-year % change)
FY2006 Revision FY2007 Revision
rate (Forecast) rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 10.9 - 12.8 + 0.8
Nonmanufacturing 7.3 - 7.7 - 0.5
All industries 8.6 - 9.6 0.0

[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 12.9 - 5.6 - 1.9
Nonmanufacturing 0.1 - 8.0 + 0.7
All industries 3.9 - 7.2 - 0.1

[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 26.7 - -11.5 + 5.4
Nonmanufacturing 0.6 - - 4.0 + 2.2
All industries 8.7 - - 6.7 + 3.3

[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 13.2 - 8.2 + 0.9
Nonmanufacturing 5.0 - 6.0 + 0.1
All industries 7.9 - 6.8 + 0.4



[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
June 2007 Sept. 2007 Change Dec. 2007 Change
between (Forecast) between
June and Sept. and
Sept. Dec.

Large Enterprises - 3 - 2 + 1 - 1 + 1

Medium-sized Enterprises - 1 - 2 - 1 - 4 - 2

Small Enterprises 2 2 0 - 1 - 3

All Enterprises 0 0 0 - 2 - 2






[Employment Conditions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
June 2007 Sept. 2007 Change Dec. 2007 Change
between (Forecast) between
June and Sept. and
Sept. Dec.

Large Enterprises -11 -12 - 1 -14 - 2

Medium-sized Enterprises -11 -11 0 -15 - 4

Small Enterprises - 7 - 6 + 1 -11 - 5

All Enterprises - 8 - 9 - 1 -13 - 4




[Financial Position (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
June 2007 Sept. 2007 Change
between
June and
Sept.

Large Enterprises 22 21 - 1

Medium-sized Enterprises 11 9 - 2

Small Enterprises 0 - 1 - 1

All Enterprises 8 6 - 2




[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
June 2007 Sept. 2007 Change
between
June and
Sept.

Large Enterprises 24 23 - 1

Medium-sized Enterprises 16 15 - 1

Small Enterprises 9 8 - 1

All Enterprises 15 13 - 2


[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
June 2007 Sept. 2007 Change Dec. 2007 Change
between (Forecast) between
June and Sept. and
Sept. Dec.

Large Enterprises 38 30 - 8 41 +11

Medium-sized Enterprises 47 38 - 9 48 +10

Small Enterprises 51 38 -13 49 +11

All Enterprises 47 36 -11 47 +11




[Condition for CP Issuance (All industries)]
(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
June 2007 Sept. 2007 Change
between
June and
Sept.

Large Enterprises 4 4 0